Temperature thresholds for germination in 20 short‐range endemic plant species from a Greenstone Belt in southern Western Australia

• The study of climate‐driven effects on seed traits such as germination has gained momentum over the past decade as the impact of global warming becomes more apparent on the health and survival of plant diversity.
• Seed response to warming was evaluated in a suite of short‐range endemic species from the biodiverse Greenstone Belt of southern Western Australia. The temperature dimensions for germination in 20 woody perennials were identified using small unreplicated samples over 6 weeks on a temperature gradient plate (constant and fluctuating temperatures between 5 and 40 °C). These data were subsequently modelled against current and forecast (2070) mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures to illustrate seasonal changes to germination timing and final percentage germination.
• All but one species attained full germination in at least one cell on the gradient plate. Modelling of the data suggested only minimal changes to percentage germination despite a forecast rise in diurnal temperatures over the next 50 years. Nine species were predicted to experience declines of between <1% and 7%, whilst 11 species were predicted to increase their germination by <1% to 3%. Overall, the speed of germination is predicted to increase but the timing of germination for most species shifts seasonally (both advances and delays) as a result of changing diurnal temperatures.
• The capacity of this suite of species to cope with warmer temperatures during a critical early life stage shows a degree of adaptation to heterogeneous environments. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial to managing and conserving plant diversity.

     

Large-amplitude internal waves benefit corals during thermal stress

Tropical scleractinian corals are particularly vulnerable to global warming as elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) disrupt the delicate balance between the coral host and their algal endosymbionts, leading to symbiont expulsion, mass bleaching and mortality. While satellite sensing of SST has proved a reliable predictor of coral bleaching at the regional scale, there are large deviations in bleaching severity and mortality on the local scale that are poorly understood. Here, we show that internal waves play a major role in explaining local coral bleaching and mortality patterns in the Andaman Sea. Despite a severe region-wide SST anomaly in May 2010, frequent upslope intrusions of cold sub-pycnocline waters due to breaking large-amplitude internal waves (LAIW) mitigated coral bleaching and mortality in shallow waters. In LAIW-sheltered waters, by contrast, bleaching-susceptible species suffered severe bleaching and total mortality. These findings suggest that LAIW benefit coral reefs during thermal stress and provide local refugia for bleaching-susceptible corals. LAIW are ubiquitous in tropical stratified waters and their swash zones may thus be important conservation areas for the maintenance of coral diversity in a warming climate. Taking LAIW into account can significantly improve coral bleaching predictions and provide a valuable tool for coral reef conservation and management.     

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species‐specific responses are resulting in community‐wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm‐adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index – the Community Temperature Index (CTI) – which measures the balance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22‐year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm‐adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.     

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season

Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre‐ vs. post budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models.     

Streamflow-induced variations in nitrate flux in tributaries to the Atlantic Coastal Zone

Streamflow-related variability in nutrient flux represents an important source of uncertainty in managing nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. Quantification of flux variability is of particular interest to coastal resource managers in adopting effective nutrient-reduction goals and monitoring progress towards these goals. We used historical records of streamflow and water-quality measurements for 104 river monitoring stations in an analysis of variability in annual and seasonal flux of nitrate to the Atlantic coastal zone. We present two measures of temporal flux variability: the coefficient of variation (CV) and the exceedence probability (EP) of 1.5 times the median flux. The magnitude of flux variations spans a very wide range and depends importantly upon the season of year and the climatic and land-use characteristics of the tributary watersheds. Year-to-year variations (CV) in annual mean flux range over two orders of magnitude, from 3–200% of the long-term mean flux, although variations more typically range from 20–40% of the long-term mean. The annual probability of exceeding the long-term median flux by more than 50% (EP) is less than 0.10 in most rivers, but is between 0.10 and 0.35 in 40% of the rivers. Year-to-year variability in seasonal mean flux commonly exceeds that in annual flux by a factor of 1.5 to 4. In western Gulf of Mexico coastal rivers, the year-to-year variablity in the seasonal mean flux is larger than in other regions, and is of a similar magnitude in all seasons. By contrast, in Atlantic coastal rivers, the winter and spring seasons, which account for about 70% of the annual flux, display the smallest relative variability in seasonal mean flux. We quantify the elasticity of nutrient flux to hypothetical changes in Streamflow (i.e., the percent increase in flux per percentage increase in mean discharge) to allow the approximation of flux variability from streamflow records and the estimation of the effects of future climatically-induced changes in Streamflow on nutrient flux. Flux elasticities are less than unity (median = 0.93%) at most stations, but vary widely from 0.05% to 1.59%. Elasticities above unity occur most frequently in the largest rivers and in rivers draining the arid portions of the western Gulf of Mexico Basin. Historical flux variability and elasticity generally increase with the extent of arid conditions and the quantity of nonurban land use in the watershed. We extend the analysis of flux variability to examine several case studies of highly unusual meteorological events capable of significantly elevating nitrate flux and degrading estuarine ecology.     

Biotic diversification in the Guayana Highlands: a proposal

Until recently, the high degree of diversity and endemism of the Guayana Highlands was explained within the frame of the refuge theory. Although this hypothesis is unsupported by recent palaeoecological evidence, no new diversification model has been proposed. This paper is a proposal based on the latest palynological findings that indicate a downward biotic migration of c. 1100 m altitude during glacials, and the subsequent interglacial upward shift, in response to colder and warmer climates, respectively. Therefore, during glacials, biotic mixing is expected in the lowlands, thus promoting sympatric speciation, hybridization and polyploidy. At the mountaintops, unknown cold‐adapted taxa and páramo‐like(?) communities are expected to have occurred, and vicariance prevailed. In the interglacials, many taxa have had the opportunity for ascending to the mountains again, allowing genetic interchange among their slopes and summits, while others would have been adapted to lowlands. The interglacial highland communities, where vicariance still predominated, experienced some extinction owing to habitat loss by upland displacement. According to this model, the successive alternation of glacials and interglacials resulted in a net increase of diversity and endemism, favoured by the complex topography and habitat heterogeneity, which allowed high niche diversification. This model has some similarities with the Andean and Amazon modes of diversification, but the special topographical characteristics of the Guayana region made it different in other fundamental aspects. The Guayana Highlands would have acted as a ‘biodiversity pump’ for the surrounding inner and coastal lowlands, due to the repeated speciation and further spreading events, as a response to climate. Several working hypotheses are suggested in relation to the proposed model. The use of coordinated international multiproxy projects combining palaeoecology and genetic analysis of modern taxa is strongly encouraged for exploring these ideas.     

Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters

The southeast coast of Australia is a global hotspot for increasing ocean temperatures due to climate change. The temperate incursion of the East Australian Current (EAC) is increasing, affording increased connectivity with the Great Barrier Reef. The survival of tropically sourced juveniles over the winter is a significant stumbling block to poleward range shifts of marine organisms in this region. Here we examine the dependence of overwintering on winter severity and prewinter recruitment for eight species of juvenile coral reef fishes which are carried into temperate SE Australia (30–37 °S) by the EAC during the austral summer. The probability of persistence was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Long‐term (138 years) data indicate that winter water temperatures throughout this region are increasing at a rate above the global average and predictions indicate a further warming of >2 °C by the end of the century. Rising ocean temperatures are resulting in a higher frequency of winter temperatures above survival thresholds. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least five of the study species as far south as Sydney (34 °S) by 2080. The implications for range expansions of these and other species of coral reef fish are discussed.     

Macro-zooplankter responses to simulated climate warming in experimental freshwater microcosms

1. We report data collected from 48 replicated microcosm communities created to mimic plant‐dominated shallow lake and pond environments. Over a 2‐year period, the microcosms were subjected to warming treatments (continuous 3 °C above ambient and 3 °C above ambient during summer only), a nutrient addition treatment and the presence or absence of fish. We tracked macro‐zooplankter dynamics, censusing cladoceran populations at the species level, copepods at the order level and ostracods as a class. 2. Responses to warming were subtle. Cladoceran diversity and overall abundance were not significantly affected by warming, although measures of community evenness increased. Warming effects on patterns of population trajectories tended to be strongly seasonal and most apparent during periods of pronounced increase. Populations of the prevalent cladocerans, Chydorus sphaericus and Simocephalus vetulus, displayed idiosyncratic patterns, with evidence in the case of S. vetulus for a negative relationship between warming and body‐size at maturity. Copepod populations were reduced in size by warming, but those of ostracods increased. 3. The effects of the nutrient addition and fish treatments were strong and consistent, interacting little with warming effects in statistical models. Zooplankter abundance tended to be the highest in the fish‐free microcosms receiving additional nutrient inputs and lowest when fish were present and no nutrients were added. Both treatments reduced cladoceran diversity and community evenness. 4. We suggest that warming, independently, is unlikely to supplant the effects of changing nutrient loading and fish predation as the major driver of zooplankter dynamics in shallow lakes and ponds. Moreover, in the situations where warming was of significant influence in our experiment, the distinction between summer‐only warming and year‐around warming was blurred. This suggests that warming effects were most pervasive during the summer, at the upper end of the temperature spectrum.